Yesterday, drawing on the hypothesis that “technological innovation and political/social systems enter a new phase roughly every 40 years,”
I analyzed global developments beginning in the 1860s. Under this framework, Japan succeeded in adapting to imperialism in the 1860s–90s and to mass consumer society in the 1940s–70s, but appears to have stumbled in transitioning to the following cycle.
However, the wave of globalization that began in the 1980s seems to have already reversed.
Can Japan make a comeback in the next cycle?
Though the shape of the new era is still unclear, I foresee two possibilities: a “Beautiful World” scenario and a “Data Colonialism” scenario.
