Reflecting on last year, various events have captured the attention of investors. For example, in February, the Nikkei Stock Average reached its highest level in 34 years, surpassing the peak of the bubble era.
The foreign exchange market also saw an increase of nearly 12% since the start of the year. U.S. stocks (S&P 500 index) rose by more than 10%, setting a record high of 22 times in terms of closing prices.
The influx of capital into U.S. stocks remains a strong trend.
In this environment, it seems that 2024 has been a year that made it easier for individual investors to venture into stock investing.
I’ve even heard stories from people around me.
For instance, a friend’s wife invested her inheritance in U.S. stocks (S&P 500 index) and made substantial profits from both stock and foreign exchange gains.
As a result, she reportedly began enjoying champagne with her daughter every evening.
Hearing such success stories makes us want to chase after that same success.
However, drawing from my long experience in international finance, I can’t help but feel a slight sense of discomfort.
I vividly remember what Li Ka-shing, Asia’s richest man, said at a dinner: “There is no market that keeps rising forever,” and “If you chase greed, you will end up with losses.”
This is a sentiment echoed by Jewish billionaires like the Rothschilds and George Soros, who have emphasized the philosophy that “Information is something you buy” and “Knowledge cannot be stolen.”
Is this an overly cautious way of thinking?
In fact, in recent investment markets, sales efforts to encourage investing have intensified, and newspapers and social media are constantly urging, “Invest! Invest!”
Even my own account manager is involved in this.
As a result, even those who had no interest in stock investing are starting to invest and discuss the market.
What concerns me, however, is a characteristic specific to the Japanese.
Japanese people, known for their integrity, tend to move in the same direction once they start heading down a particular path.
Witnessing this phenomenon, I can’t help but feel the discomfort and sense of crisis that I’ve developed through years of experience.
Let me share with you some of my concerns, shaped by my experience of having encountered nearly ten “black swan” events over the past 30 years.
