※Translated with Notion AI. (Plus version)
On June 24, an article by Mr. Snow White was released on Seren as follows:
【Will the trend of a weaker yen continue? Be wary of a possible turning point in July】(click here)
Afterward, the foreign exchange market saw a continuous depreciation of the yen. On the 28th, the USD/JPY temporarily went above 161.20, marking the highest level in 37 years.
The EUR/JPY also reached 172 yen, the highest since the single currency was introduced in 1999.
The Nikkei newspaper reported in its June 28 morning edition (https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB2577Z0V20C24A6000000/):
“The yen’s depreciation seems unstoppable. (…) Expectations are rising that the government’s measures to counter cost-of-living pressures, such as electricity bill subsidies, will worsen yen depreciation. The market, seeing through the government and the Bank of Japan’s reliance on foreign exchange intervention, is increasing its yen-selling as the government’s commitment to dealing with yen depreciation fades.”
Is the yen’s depreciation truly “unstoppable”?
It’s Too Late To Stop Now???
We contacted Mr. Snow White to see whether his view that “the trend of yen depreciation is nearing its final stage in the short term” still holds.
Question 1: How should we understand the recent USD/JPY, which appears to be deviating from the fair value? Is it solely yen depreciation? Or is it dollar appreciation?
